H2 Gambling Capital projects global licensed sports betting on the 2026 FIFA World Cup will total approximately $60B, marking a 71% increase over the 2022 tournament. The forecast coincides with regulatory developments in the United Arab Emirates and Finland, where new licensing frameworks are reshaping regional gambling markets.
Host nations United States, Mexico, and Canada are expected to generate $5.7B in wagers. The United States leads with $2.9B, while Mexico follows at $2.5B. Brazil accounts for over $3.5B in projected betting volume, driven by recent market regulation and high football engagement.
Prediction markets are excluded from these figures, as they operate outside licensed bookmaker categories. Industry operators treat the tournament primarily as a user acquisition channel rather than a short-term revenue driver. Player winnings typically cycle back into the broader gaming ecosystem through continued platform activity.
Regional Regulatory Shifts
The United Arab Emirates appointed Kiran Caruthers as chief executive of the General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority. Caruthers brings experience from Crown Resorts, Wynn Resorts, and Galaxy Entertainment. The appointment signals a structured approach to market development, with regulators prioritizing industry collaboration and controlled innovation. Online gambling potential in the UAE is estimated at $350M, though land-based integrated resorts remain the primary growth focus. Meanwhile, Finland has launched its regulated gambling market, attracting roughly 50 license applications. Analysts anticipate the final count may reach 70 to 80 operators, a number exceeding long-term market capacity. H2 Gambling Capital forecasts the Finnish licensed online segment will reach $1.4B to $1.5B by 2028, with cannibalization of the legacy market approaching 80%. State operator Veikkaus maintains a structural advantage due to its established presence in the newly regulated environment.The 2022 tournament baseline recorded approximately $35B in licensed betting volume, establishing the reference point for current growth projections. Source: Right to the Source, iGaming Business.