Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin reviewed recent gambling industry developments, focusing on the Netherlands' underperforming tax reforms and betting activity during the World Cup. The discussion also covered Ireland's new licensing framework and regulatory coordination across Africa.
Dutch Tax Reforms and Market Impact
The Netherlands implemented a two-stage gambling tax increase, raising the rate from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025 and to 37.8% in January 2026. Treasury projections anticipated additional revenues of €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026. Actual collections reached €2 million in 2025, with 2026 estimates at €57 million. The shortfall stems from combined regulatory measures, including new deposit limits, advertising restrictions, and the decline of the post-Euro 2024 revenue surge. Land-based operators reported an 11% year-on-year drop in casino and gaming hall visits, with several venues citing the tax increase as a contributing factor to closures.Regulatory Developments in Ireland and Africa
Ireland introduced its new licensing regime under GRAI on 1 July. Onshore platforms currently handle 89% of online betting volume, representing 35% of the total market, while iGaming operations remain offshore and unregulated. Platform providers such as Pragmatic Solutions have launched services to assist operators during the transition. Regulatory discussions also extended to the Africa Summit, where officials from Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya convened with the African Tax Administration Forum and the African iGaming Alliance. The summit addressed sustainable taxation, market channelisation, and player protection, alongside preparations for a continent-wide Africa Safer Gambling Week.Ed Birkin moderated a taxation panel at the summit and noted that operators in certain markets quietly absorb or circumvent elevated tax rates. This observation raises questions regarding the industry's position on future tax policy adjustments. The analysis draws on data from the Right to the Source series.